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考虑过街行人运动轨迹不确定性的人-车碰撞概率预测方法

韩勇 谈笑天 潘迪 金钱钱 李永强 吴贺

韩勇, 谈笑天, 潘迪, 金钱钱, 李永强, 吴贺. 考虑过街行人运动轨迹不确定性的人-车碰撞概率预测方法[J]. 交通信息与安全, 2023, 41(3): 30-40. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2023.03.004
引用本文: 韩勇, 谈笑天, 潘迪, 金钱钱, 李永强, 吴贺. 考虑过街行人运动轨迹不确定性的人-车碰撞概率预测方法[J]. 交通信息与安全, 2023, 41(3): 30-40. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2023.03.004
HAN Yong, TAN Xiaotian, PAN Di, JIN Qianqian, LI Yongqiang, WU He. A Method for Predicting the Collision Probability between Crossing-street Pedestrians and Vehicles Considering the Uncertainty of Pedestrians' Movement Trajectories[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2023, 41(3): 30-40. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2023.03.004
Citation: HAN Yong, TAN Xiaotian, PAN Di, JIN Qianqian, LI Yongqiang, WU He. A Method for Predicting the Collision Probability between Crossing-street Pedestrians and Vehicles Considering the Uncertainty of Pedestrians' Movement Trajectories[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2023, 41(3): 30-40. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2023.03.004

考虑过街行人运动轨迹不确定性的人-车碰撞概率预测方法

doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2023.03.004
基金项目: 

国家自然科学基金项目 51775466

厦门市自然科学基金面上项目 3502Z20227223

福建省工信厅项目 2022G043

详细信息
    通讯作者:

    韩勇(1984—),博士,教授. 研究方向:汽车安全. E-mail:yonghan@xmut.edu.cn

  • 中图分类号: U471.1

A Method for Predicting the Collision Probability between Crossing-street Pedestrians and Vehicles Considering the Uncertainty of Pedestrians' Movement Trajectories

  • 摘要: 为了准确预测人-车冲突中的碰撞风险,研究了利用碰撞概率评估人-车碰撞风险的预测方法。基于车辆运动特征建立车辆运动学模型,通过采集行人实际过街运动轨迹并提取不确定性特征,采用一阶马尔科夫模型和高斯白噪声建立行人随机运动模型,在此基础上构建人-车冲突距离模型;运用蒙特卡洛抽样,提取行人过街过程中的人-车最短距离和碰撞时间(time to collision,TTC)分布特征,通过拟合这些特征来估算最短距离和TTC的概率密度函数,建立人-车碰撞概率预测模型;结合2起人-车深度事故案例和3种不同制动特性的自动紧急制动(automatic emergency braking,AEB)系统,对比验证人-车碰撞概率预测模型的有效性。结果显示:建立的行人随机运动模型,其模拟的行人运动速度的均值和标准差与实际值的绝对误差在2%以内,模型精度较高;在事故案例仿真中,车辆与行人在发生碰撞时刻对应的碰撞概率为100%;在车辆加装AEB的仿真中,激进型AEB,法规型AEB以及保守型AEB在触发时刻对应的碰撞概率分别为超过了80%,在30%~40%之间,以及不足5%,这表明人-车碰撞概率预测模型可有效预测2起真实案例中行人和车辆在不同时刻的碰撞风险,且与使用固定触发阈值的AEB相比,建立的人-车碰撞概率预测模型能够更加准确直观地反应人-车碰撞风险。

     

  • 图  1  碰撞概率预测流程

    Figure  1.  Process of collision probability prediction

    图  2  行人过街场景

    Figure  2.  Scenario of pedestrians crossing the road

    图  3  车辆运动学模型

    Figure  3.  Vehicle kinematics model

    图  4  行人过街轨迹对比

    Figure  4.  Comparison of pedestrians'crossing trajectories

    图  5  行人速度分布对比

    Figure  5.  Comparison of pedestrians'velocity distribution

    图  6  初始仿真状态$d_{\min }$和$t_{\overline{\underline{\mathrm{TTC}}}}$分布(案例1)

    Figure  6.  Distribution of $d_{\min }$ and $t_{\overline{\underline{\mathrm{TTC}}}}$ at the initial simulation moment (Case 1)

    图  7  车辆制动过程

    Figure  7.  Process of the vehicle brake

    图  8  行人过街瞬间(案例1)

    Figure  8.  Crossing moment of the pedestrian(Case 1)

    图  9  人-车碰撞概率曲线(案例1)

    Figure  9.  Curve of pedestrian-vehicle collision probability(Case 1)

    图  10  碰撞概率与人-车相对距离及车速关系曲线(案例1)

    Figure  10.  Curve of relationship between collision probability and relative pedestrian-vehicle distance and vehicle velocity(Case 1)

    图  11  行人过街瞬间(案例2)

    Figure  11.  Crossing moment of the pedestrian(Case 2)

    图  12  人-车碰撞概率曲线(案例2)

    Figure  12.  Curve of pedestrian-vehicle collision probability(Case 2)

    图  13  碰撞概率与人-车相对距离及车速关系曲线(案例2)

    Figure  13.  Curve of relationship between collision probability and relative pedestrian-vehicle distance and vehicle velocity(Case 2)

    表  1  3种不同制动类型AEB参数设置[26-29]

    Table  1.   Parameter setting for 3 different brake types of AEB

    参数 激进型 法规型 保守型
    amax/g 0.9 0.9 0.5
    ttrigger/s 0.8 1.1 1.4
    θFOV/(°) 50/75 75 90
    探测距离/m 60 60 60
    制动器延迟时间/s 0.1 0.1 0.1
    下载: 导出CSV
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  • 收稿日期:  2022-11-15
  • 网络出版日期:  2023-09-16

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